Zogulitsa zam'mwamba kwambiri ndi gulu lachilendo.Kupanga kumtunda kukatsekeredwa, ogulitsa pakati, mafakitale akumunsi, ndipo ngakhale ogula "amagona pamfuti zawo"!Mofanana ndi makina opangira magetsi atsopano, kuchepa kwa zida za lithiamu batire kwabweretsa zovuta zazikulu pakupanga mabatire amphamvu, omwe atsekereza khosi lamakampani opanga magalimoto atsopano.Ngati ndikungoyendetsa kwa nthawi yayitali, zili bwino!Chodabwitsa n'chakuti, katundu akhozanso kuletsana.Mwachitsanzo, kuyambira chaka chino, kusinthasintha kwa mitengo ya petulo ku Brazil kwakhudza kwambiri mitengo ya shuga!
1. Kutumiza Logic kwa Mphamvu ya Mtengo wa Mafuta Opanda Mafuta pa Mtengo wa Shuga
Zinthu zashuga (shuga/beet) zitha kugwiritsidwa ntchito kupanga shuga ndi Mowa, ndipo Mowa umagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pophatikiza mafuta.Chifukwa cha kukwezedwa kwa ethanol m'maiko otulutsa shuga padziko lonse lapansi, gawo la ethanol kuchokera ku nzimbe lakwera kwambiri.Monga "mfumu ya zinthu", kusinthasintha kwa mtengo wa mafuta osakanizidwa kudzakhudza mtengo wa mafuta, motero kupititsa ku mtengo wa ethanol, ndipo pamapeto pake kumakhudza mtengo wa shuga.M'tsogolomu, mtengo wazinthu zaulimi udzakhala wogwirizana kwambiri ndi mtengo wamafuta osakanizidwa.
Kukhudzika kwa mtengo wamafuta osakhazikika pamtengo wa shuga:
1) Monga zopangira kumtunda, mtengo wamafuta oyengedwa makamaka umadalira mafuta amafuta.
2) Mofanana ndi makina opangira mitengo yamafuta apanyumba, mtengo wamafuta aku Brazil waku Brazil umatsimikiziridwa ndi Petrobras kutengera kulemera kwamitengo yamafuta amafuta aku US (WTI), Brent crude oil (BRENT) ndi US unleaded petulo (RBOB).
3) Ku Brazil, kumbali yopanga, kukakamiza nzimbe kwa mphero zambiri za shuga kumatha kusintha chiŵerengero cha kupanga kwa ethanol ndi shuga.Potengera mphamvu zamafakitale amtundu wa shuga, kusintha kwa magawo awo a shuga ndi pafupifupi 34% - 50%.Kusintha makamaka kumadalira kusiyana kwa mtengo pakati pa shuga ndi ethanol - pamene mtengo wa shuga ndi wokwera kwambiri kuposa wa ethanol, mafakitale a shuga a ku Brazil adzakulitsa kupanga shuga;Pamene mtengo wa shuga uli pafupi ndi wa ethanol, mphero za shuga zidzatulutsa ethanol wochuluka momwe zingathere;Pamene mitengo ya awiriwa ili pafupi, chifukwa chakuti malonda ambiri a ethanol ali ku Brazil, mafakitale a shuga amatha kuchotsa ndalama mwamsanga, pamene magawo awiri pa atatu aliwonse a shuga amagwiritsidwa ntchito kugulitsa kunja, ndipo liwiro la kusonkhanitsa malipiro lidzakhala lochepa.Choncho, pamene mafakitale a shuga ambiri kumtunda, amayamba kupanga ethanol.Pomaliza, ku Brazil, kusintha kwa gawo la 1% la shuga kudzakhudza matani 75-80 miliyoni a mafakitale a shuga.Chotero, m’mikhalidwe yoipitsitsa kwambiri, mafakitale a shuga angasinthire kutulutsa shuga kwa matani 11-12 miliyoni popanda kusintha kukolola nzimbe, ndipo kusintha kumeneku n’kofanana ndi kutulutsa shuga kwa China m’chaka chimodzi.Zitha kuwoneka kuti kupanga kwa ethanol ku Brazil kumakhudza kwambiri kuchuluka kwa shuga padziko lonse lapansi komanso kufunikira kwake.
4) Ku Brazil, Mowa wamtheradi umasakanizidwa ndi petulo wangwiro (mafuta A) kupanga mafuta C (27%);Kuonjezera apo, pa malo opangira mafuta, ogula amatha kusankha momasuka kuyika mafuta amtundu wa C kapena hydrous ethanol mu thanki yamafuta, ndipo chisankhocho chimachokera ku chuma cha onse awiri - mtengo wa calorific wa ethanol ndi pafupifupi 0,7 wa mafuta.Choncho, pamene chiŵerengero cha mtengo wa ethanol wa hydrous ku mafuta amtundu wa C ndi pansi pa 0,7, ogula adzawonjezera kumwa kwa ethanol ndikuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta;komanso mbali inayi
5) Kuphatikiza ku Brazil, India, European Union ndi mayiko ena akulimbikitsanso kupanga ethanol.Kwa United States, monga dziko lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi la ethanol, zopangira zimadalira chimanga, koma mtengo wa ethanol wa chimanga ku United States umakhudzidwanso ndi mitengo yamagetsi.Pomaliza, pali kusinthana kwa malonda pakati pa ethanol ya chimanga ya United States ndi ethanol ya nzimbe ya ku Brazil.Mowa waku America ukhoza kutumizidwa ku Brazil, ndipo Mowa waku Brazil ungatumizidwenso ku United States.Mayendedwe otengera ndi kutumiza kunja kumadalira kusiyana kwamitengo pakati pa ziwirizi.
Popanda zotsutsana zatsopano, kufooka kwa msika wa shuga kwakanthawi kochepa kumagwirizana kwambiri ndi kutsika kwamitengo yamafuta.Mtengo wamafuta osakhazikika ukakhazikika, msika wa shuga wapakhomo ndi wakunja ukuyembekezeka kukweranso.
2. Mfundo za mayiko omwe akupanga zinthu zambiri zimasintha, ndipo mutu wa misika ya shuga ndi "watsopano"
"Malinga ndi zomwe zayamba posachedwapa m'misika ya shuga yapakhomo ndi yakunja, ambiri a iwo ndi okhudzana ndi mayiko omwe akupanga shuga."Wogulitsa shuga ku Nanning, Guangnan, adauza atolankhani kuti mpaka pano, mayiko ambiri padziko lonse lapansi alengeza kuti aletsa kapena kuletsa kugulitsa kwawo shuga, komwe mayiko omwe amapanga shuga ndi kutumiza kunja ku Brazil ndi India ali ndi vuto lalikulu pamsika. , kenako Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia ndi mayiko ena.
Zikumveka kuti pakati pa mayiko omwe ali pamwambawa omwe amapanga shuga, dziko la India lachepetsa kuchuluka kwa shuga omwe amatumizidwa kunja.Chifukwa chomwe chaperekedwa ndikuwonetsetsa kukhazikika kwa zinthu zake zapakhomo komanso kuti mitengo ya shuga isakwere.Mofanana ndi India, Pakistan ikuyeseranso kuchepetsa kukwera kwa inflation ndikuwonetsetsa kuti ikupezeka m'nyumba.Komabe, Pakistan idayesetsa kwambiri kuposa India, ndipo idalengeza mwachindunji kuletsa kwake kutumiza shuga koyambirira kwa Meyi.Kuchokera ku Brazil, ndizopadera kwambiri.Monga dziko lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi lomwe limapanga shuga, limakhudza kwambiri kuchuluka kwa shuga padziko lonse lapansi.Pakalipano, potengera kukwera kwa mitengo yamafuta osakanizidwa padziko lonse lapansi, mafakitale a shuga ku Brazil sakufuna kupanga shuga wambiri, ngakhale mitengo ya shuga nayonso yakwera kwambiri.
Komabe, pali nkhani yoti msonkho wamafuta ku Brazil upangitsa kutsika kwamitengo ya shuga.Msika wamakono ukuyang'anitsitsa momwe ndalama zikuyendera.Zikumveka kuti bilu yaku Brazil (yokonzekera) ikuyenera kuchepetsa misonkho yamafuta, makamaka mafuta, zomwe zingapangitse mafakitale a shuga kuti asinthe kuchoka pakupanga kwa ethanol kupita kukupanga shuga, ndipo pamapeto pake kutsitsa mtengo wa shuga padziko lonse lapansi.
Pakadali pano, boma la Brazil likulimbikitsa malamulo oletsa msonkho wa ICMS pamafuta mpaka 17%.Popeza misonkho yaposachedwa ya ICMS pa petulo ndi yayikulu kuposa ethanol, ndipo yoposa 17%, biluyo ipangitsa kutsika kwamitengo yamafuta.Kuti mukhalebe wampikisano, ethanol iyeneranso kuchepetsedwa mtengo.M'tsogolomu, ngati mtengo wa ethanol utsika, mafakitale omwe amatha kupanga ethanol kapena shuga wambiri molingana ndi mtengo wamsika akhoza kutembenukira kukupanga shuga, motero akuwonjezera kupezeka kwapadziko lonse.Akatswiri ananena kuti pamsika waukulu wamafuta wa Sao Paulo, lamulo latsopanoli likhoza kuchepetsa mpikisano wa ethanol poyerekeza ndi mafuta a petulo ndi 8 peresenti, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mitengo yamafuta a biofuel ikhale yovuta.
Zimamvekanso kuti Vietnam idzayimitsa kafukufuku wotsutsana ndi kutaya kwa shuga woyengedwa kuchokera kwa oyandikana nawo a ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos ndi Myanmar) mpaka July 21, miyezi iwiri pambuyo pa tsiku lomaliza la May 21. Kuwonjezera apo, Indonesian boma laonjezera kuperekedwa kwa zilolezo zapadera ku mafakitale oyenga m’nyumba ndi m’zigayo za shuga.Vietnam ndi amodzi mwa omwe amalowetsa shuga woyengedwa kwambiri ku Asia.Kuyambira pomwe boma lidalengeza kuti likhazikitse msonkho wa 47.64% pa shuga woyengedwa wotumizidwa kuchokera ku Thailand, kutulutsa kwake kwa shuga woyengedwa kuchokera ku Indonesia kwakwera.Dziko la Thailand litakhazikitsa mitengo yotsika mtengo ya shuga, shuga wochulukirapo kuchokera ku Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos ndi Myanmar adalowa ku Vietnam.
3. Mkangano pakati pa mafuta ndi mtengo wa shuga
Mafuta amayeretsedwa kuchokera ku mafuta osapsa.Mtengo wa petulo wogulitsidwa ndi Petrobras kwa ogawa umachokera pamtengo wofanana wa kunja, womwe umapangidwa ndi mtengo wapadziko lonse wamafuta kuphatikiza mtengo womwe wobwereketsa angatenge.Mtengo wamafuta aku Brazil ukachoka pamtengo wamafuta apadziko lonse kufika pamlingo wakutiwakuti, Petrobras isintha mtengo wake wamafuta waku fakitale wakale.Chifukwa chake, mtengo wamafuta wapadziko lonse lapansi udzakhudza mitengo yoyambira ya Petrobras (mtengo wa Gulu A mafuta).
Chiyambireni chaka chino, zomwe zakhudzidwa ndi momwe zinthu ziliri ku Russia ndi Ukraine, mtengo wamafuta amafuta wakwera kwambiri.Pa Marichi 11, Petrobras adakweza mtengo wamafuta ndi 18.8%.Kafukufuku wambiri pamsika akuwonetsa kuti magalimoto osinthika amafuta amatha kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta a C kapena hydrous ethanol ngati gwero lamphamvu.Eni magalimoto nthawi zambiri amasankha mafuta potengera mtengo wa ethanol/petulo.70% ndi mzere wogawa.Pamwamba pa mzere wogawaniza, amakonda kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta, apo ayi amakonda ethanol.Kusankha kwa ogula kumeneku mwachibadwa kudzaperekedwa kwa opanga.Kwa mafakitale opangira nzimbe, ngati mtengo wa mafuta amafuta padziko lonse ukwera, amaika patsogolo kupanga ethanol m’malo mwa shuga.
Chidule cha chiganizo chimodzi: mtengo wamafuta unakwera - mtengo wamafuta unakwera ku Brazil - kumwa kwa ethanol kwawonjezeka - kupanga shuga kunatsika - mtengo wa shuga unakwera.
Monga dziko lopanga ndi kutumiza shuga padziko lonse lapansi, udindo wa Brazil pamsika wa shuga padziko lonse ndi wodziwikiratu kwa onse.Ngakhale kuchuluka kwa shuga ku Brazil ndikwambiri, momwe amagwiritsidwira ntchito m'nyumba amakhala osakwana 30% ya zomwe zimatulutsidwa.Kutumiza kwake kunja kumapangitsa kupitilira 70% ya shuga wa dziko lino, komanso kupitilira 40% ya msika wapadziko lonse lapansi.Komabe, chododometsa ndi chakuti, mosiyana ndi malingaliro ambiri omwe amatsimikizira kukwera ndi kutsika kwa zinthu, ubale wopezeka ndi kufunikira kwa mitengo ya shuga suwonetsa kusintha kwamitengo ya shuga padziko lonse lapansi.Zomwe zikukhudzidwa ndizovuta kwambiri.Nthawi zambiri, zimakhudzana ndi kuchuluka kwa shuga padziko lonse lapansi komanso kugulitsa kunja.Chifukwa chake, ngati mukufuna kudziwa momwe mtengo wa shuga umakhalira, muyenera kuyang'ana mophatikizana ndi Brazil, omwe amapanga shuga wamkulu.
CICC idatsimikiza kuti: pamakina amitengo ya shuga padziko lonse lapansi, chomwe chimatsimikizira mtengo wa shuga ku Brazil chili kumbali yopereka, osati mbali yofunikira.Malinga ndi zofunikira zapakhomo, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwapakhomo ku Brazil kwakhala kosasunthika m'zaka zaposachedwa, ndipo mphamvu zogulitsira ndizokwera kwambiri kuposa zomwe zimafunikira.Chifukwa chake, pamayendedwe anthawi yayitali komanso kufunikira kwanthawi yayitali, kusintha kwapang'onopang'ono kumbali yoperekera ndiye chinsinsi chodziwira mtengo wa shuga waku Brazil, komanso chinthu chachikulu chomwe chikukhudza mtengo wa shuga padziko lonse lapansi.Pankhani ya mtengo wa shuga wapadziko lonse lapansi, poyembekezera zokolola zambiri ku Brazil, malinga ndi zolosera za USDA, kutulutsa kwa shuga padziko lonse mu 2022/23 kudzakweranso ndi 0,94% pachaka mpaka matani 183 miliyoni, akadali ochulukirachulukira.
M’mawu ena, ponena za mmene zinthu zilili panopa, sipadzakhala kusowa kwa chakudya.Pa msika wamakono wa shuga, pali kutsutsana pakati pa kukwera kwa kupanga m'mayiko omwe akupanga shuga ndi kukwera kwa mitengo yamagetsi.Komabe, m’kupita kwa nthaŵi, kusintha kwakukulu komwe kumabwera chifukwa cha mtengo wamafuta osakanizidwa kudzakhudza kwambiri mtengo wa shuga.Ndi phindu lazinthu zina zazikulu, shuga yaiwisi yanthawi yayitali ikuyembekezeka kupitiliza kukula mwamphamvu pamodzi ndi mtengo wamafuta.
Malingaliro a kampani JinDun Chemicalyadzipereka pakukula ndi kugwiritsa ntchito ma monomers apadera a acrylate ndi mankhwala apadera abwino okhala ndi fluorine.JinDun Chemical ali ndi mafakitale opangira OEM ku Jiangsu, Anhui ndi malo ena omwe agwirizana kwazaka zambiri, akupereka chithandizo cholimba kwambiri pakupanga makonda amankhwala apadera.JinDun Chemical amaumirira kuti apange gulu lokhala ndi maloto, kupanga zinthu mwaulemu, mosamala, mosamalitsa, ndikupita kukakhala bwenzi lodalirika komanso bwenzi lamakasitomala!Yesani kupangazida zatsopano zamakinabweretsani tsogolo labwino kudziko!
Nthawi yotumiza: Nov-22-2022