Kuyambira nthawi yachisanu, "dongosolo la malire" la EU pa kutumizidwa kwa mafuta ku Russia ndi nyanja yayamba kugwira ntchito.Malamulo atsopanowa adzakhazikitsa mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa US $ 60 pa mbiya yogulitsa mafuta aku Russia.
Poyankha "lamulo loletsa mitengo" la EU, Russia idanena kale kuti sipereka mafuta ndi mafuta kumayiko omwe amaika malire amitengo pamafuta aku Russia.Kodi malire amtengowa akhudza bwanji vuto lamagetsi ku Europe?Kodi mwayi wabwino wotumiza kunja kwa msika wamankhwala wapanyumba ndi uti?
Kodi kukonza mitengo kudzagwira ntchito?
Choyamba, tiyeni tiwone ngati malire a mtengowa amagwira ntchito?
Malinga ndi lipoti la pawebusaiti ya magazini ya ku America yotchedwa National Interests, akuluakulu a ku America akukhulupirira kuti kukwera mtengo kwa mitengo kumapangitsa kuti ogula azitha kuona zinthu moonekera bwino komanso kuti apeze ndalama zambiri.Ngakhale dziko la Russia litayesa kudutsa malire amtengo wapatali ndi ogula kunja kwa mgwirizano, ndalama zawo zidzakhalabe zokhumudwa.
Komabe, maiko ena akuluakulu sangatsatire dongosolo lokwera mtengo ndipo adalira chithandizo cha inshuwaransi kupatula cha EU kapena G7.Kapangidwe kake kamsika wazinthu zapadziko lonse lapansi kumaperekanso mpata wakumbuyo kwa mafuta aku Russia pansi pa chilango kuti apeze phindu lalikulu.
Malinga ndi lipoti la National Interest, kukhazikitsidwa kwa “gulu la ogula” sikunachitikepo.Ngakhale lingaliro lothandizira kuchepetsa mtengo wamafuta ndi lanzeru, dongosolo la malire amitengo lidzangowonjezera chipwirikiti cha msika wamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi, koma sichidzakhudza kwambiri kuchepetsa ndalama zamafuta aku Russia.Pazochitika zonsezi, malingaliro a omanga malamulo akumadzulo ponena za zotsatira ndi mtengo wandale wa nkhondo yawo yachuma yolimbana ndi Russia adzafunsidwa.
The Associated Press inanena pa 3 kuti mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa $ 60 sungathe kuvulaza Russia, kutchula akatswiri.Pakalipano, mtengo wa mafuta a mafuta a ku Russia a Ural watsika pansi pa $ 60, pamene mtengo wa London Brent mafuta osakanizidwa ndi $ 85 pa mbiya.Nyuzipepala ya New York Post inagwira mawu ofufuza a JPMorgan Chase kuti ngati mbali ya Russia ibwezera, mtengo wa mafuta ukhoza kukwera madola 380 pa mbiya.
Mtumiki wakale wa zachuma ku US Mnuchin adanenapo kuti njira yochepetsera mtengo wamafuta amafuta aku Russia sikuti ndi yotheka, komanso yodzaza ndi ming'alu.Ananenanso kuti "potengera ku Europe kuitanitsa mafuta oyengedwa mosasamala, mafuta osakanizika aku Russia amatha kupitabe ku Europe ndi United States popanda zoletsa bola akudutsa m'malo okwererako magalimoto, ndipo kukonzanso mtengo wowonjezera wa malo okwererako ndikopindulitsa kwambiri pazachuma. , zomwe zidzalimbikitsa India ndi Türkiye kuti awonjezere khama lawo pogula mafuta a ku Russia ndi kuyenga mafuta oyengedwa pamlingo waukulu, zomwe zikhoza kukhala malo atsopano opititsa patsogolo chuma m'mayiko odutsa."
Nthawi ino mosakayikira yakulitsa vuto lamagetsi ku Europe.Ngakhale kuti gasi wachilengedwe wa mayiko ambiri a ku Ulaya ali ndi katundu wambiri, malinga ndi zomwe Russia akunena panopa komanso zomwe zikuchitika m'tsogolomu Russia Ukraine nkhondo, Russia sichidzasokoneza izi, ndipo mwina mtengo wake ndi chinyengo chabe.
Nduna Yowona Zakunja ku Russia Sergei Lavrov adati pa Disembala 1 kuti Russia siyikufuna kuyika kumadzulo kwa denga lamtengo wamafuta aku Russia, chifukwa Russia idzamaliza ntchitoyo mwachindunji ndi anzawo ndipo sipereka mafuta kumayiko omwe amathandizira kukhazikitsa mafuta aku Russia. mtengo wotsika.Patsiku lomwelo, Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti wa Banki Yaikulu ya Russia Yudayeva adanena kuti m'zaka zaposachedwa, msika wapadziko lonse wamafuta wakumana ndi kusinthasintha kwachiwawa mobwerezabwereza.Chuma cha Russia ndi dongosolo lazachuma lawonetsa kulimba kwa msika wamagetsi, ndipo Russia ndi yokonzeka kusintha kulikonse.
Kodi njira zochepetsera mitengo yamafuta zipangitsa kuti mafuta azikhala ochepa padziko lonse lapansi?
Kuchokera pamalingaliro a njira yomwe Europe ndi United States sizinatsekeretu kutumizidwa kwamafuta aku Russia, koma zidatenga miyeso yamitengo, Europe ndi United States akuyembekeza kuchepetsa ndalama zankhondo ku Moscow ndikuyesera kuti asakhudze kwambiri mafuta padziko lonse lapansi. kupezeka ndi kufuna.Zikunenedweratu kuchokera kuzinthu zitatu zotsatirazi kuti kuchuluka kwa mtengo wamafuta sikungabweretse kutsika kwamafuta ndi kufunikira kwamafuta.
Choyamba, malire amtengo wapatali a $ 60 ndi mtengo umene sudzatsogolera ku Russia kulephera kutumiza mafuta kunja.Tikudziwa kuti pafupifupi mtengo wogulitsa wamafuta aku Russia kuyambira Juni mpaka Okutobala unali madola 71, ndipo mtengo wochotsera mafuta aku Russia ku India mu Okutobala unali pafupifupi madola 65.Mu Novembala, motengera njira zochepetsera mitengo yamafuta, mafuta a Ural adatsika pansi pa yuan 60 nthawi zambiri.Pa Novembara 25, mtengo wotumizira mafuta aku Russia ku Primorsk Port unali madola 51.96 okha, pafupifupi 40% kutsika kuposa mafuta amafuta a Brent.Mu 2021 ndi m'mbuyomu, mtengo wogulitsa mafuta aku Russia nthawi zambiri umakhala wotsika kuposa $ 60.Choncho, sizingatheke kuti Russia asagulitse mafuta pamaso pa mtengo wotsika kuposa $ 60.Ngati Russia sichigulitsa mafuta, idzataya theka la ndalama zake.Padzakhala mavuto aakulu pakugwira ntchito kwa dziko komanso kupulumuka kwa asilikali.Chifukwa chake,
njira zochepetsera mitengo sizingadzetse kuchepetsedwa kwa mafuta padziko lonse lapansi.
Chachiwiri, mafuta a Venezuela adzabwerera ku Jianghu, lomwe ndi chenjezo kwa Russia.
Madzulo oti ayambe kugwira ntchito yoletsa kuletsa mafuta osakanizika komanso mtengo wamafuta, Purezidenti wa US Biden mwadzidzidzi adatulutsa uthenga wabwino ku Venezuela.Pa Novembara 26, US Treasury idalola kampani yayikulu yamagetsi Chevron kuyambiranso bizinesi yake yofufuza mafuta ku Venezuela.
Tiyenera kudziwa kuti m'zaka zaposachedwa, United States yavomereza motsatizana maiko atatu opangira mphamvu, omwe ndi Iran, Venezuela ndi Russia.Tsopano, pofuna kupewa kupitilirabe kwa Russia kugwiritsa ntchito zida zamphamvu, United States imatulutsa mafuta aku Venezuela kuti ayang'ane ndi kuwongolera.
Kusintha kwa mfundo za boma la Biden ndi chizindikiro chomveka bwino.M'tsogolomu, osati Chevron yokha, komanso makampani ena amafuta akhoza kuyambiranso bizinesi yawo yofufuza mafuta ku Venezuela nthawi iliyonse.Pakalipano, kupanga mafuta a tsiku ndi tsiku ku Venezuela ndi pafupifupi migolo ya 700000, pamene zisanachitike chilango, kupanga mafuta tsiku ndi tsiku kupitirira migolo ya 3 miliyoni.Akatswiri azamakampani amalosera kuti mafuta opangira mafuta aku Venezuela abwerera mwachangu mpaka migolo 1 miliyoni patsiku mkati mwa miyezi 2-3.Pakadutsa theka la chaka, imatha kuchira mpaka migolo 3 miliyoni patsiku.
Chachitatu, mafuta aku Iran akusisitanso m'manja.M'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yapitayo, Iran yakhala ikukambirana ndi Europe ndi United States, ikuyembekeza kugwiritsa ntchito nkhani ya nyukiliya posinthana ndi kuchotsa zilango zamafuta ndikuwonjezera kutumiza mafuta kunja.Chuma cha Iran chakhala chovuta kwambiri m'zaka zaposachedwa, ndipo mikangano yapakhomo yakula.Ikupitilirabe kuchulukitsa mafuta otumizira kunja kuti apulumuke.Russia ikachepetsa kutumizira mafuta kunja, ndi mwayi wabwino kuti Iran iwonjezere kugulitsa mafuta kunja.
Chachinayi, pamene mayiko ambiri akupitiriza kukweza chiwongoladzanja kuti athetse kukwera kwa mitengo, kukula kwachuma padziko lonse kudzatsika mu 2023, ndipo kufunikira kwa mphamvu kudzachepa.OPEC yaneneratu zoterezi nthawi zambiri.Ngakhale Europe ndi United States ziti zikhazikitse zilango zamtengo wapatali pamagetsi aku Russia, mafuta osakhazikika padziko lonse lapansi atha kukwaniritsa zofunikira.
Kodi mtengo wamafuta udzakwera kwambiri mitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi?
Pa Disembala 3, poyang'anizana ndi malire amtengo wamafuta aku Russia omwe amayenera kukhazikitsidwa pa Disembala 5, mitengo yamafuta a Brent mtsogolo inali bata, kutseka pa madola 85,42 pa mbiya, 1,68% kutsika kuposa tsiku lakale lamalonda.Kutengera kuwunika kwatsatanetsatane kwazinthu zosiyanasiyana, mtengo wamafuta ukhoza kungotsitsa mtengo wamafuta, koma osatsogolera kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta.Monga momwe akatswiri achaka chino omwe adalimbikitsa kuti zilango zomwe Russia zilangidwe zipangitsa kuti mitengo yamafuta ikwere kwambiri idalephera kuwona mtengo wamafuta pafupifupi $150, sawona mtengo wamafuta wopitilira $100 womwe utha kukhala milungu iwiri mu 2023.
Choyamba, mgwirizano pakati pa mafuta apadziko lonse ndi zofuna zawo zakhazikitsidwa pambuyo pa nkhondo.Pambuyo pa chipwirikiti cha kupezeka ndi kufunikira m'gawo lachiwiri, Ulaya adamanganso njira yatsopano yoperekera mafuta yomwe siidalira Russia, yomwe ndi maziko a kutsika kwa mitengo ya mafuta padziko lonse m'gawo lachitatu.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, ngakhale kuti mayiko awiri ochezeka a Russia anawonjezera kuchuluka kwa mafuta ogula ku Russia, onse awiri anakhalabe pafupifupi 20%, osafika ku EU kudalira mafuta a ku Russia pafupifupi 45% isanafike 2021. , sichidzakhudza kwambiri mafuta padziko lonse lapansi.
Chachiwiri, Venezuela ndi Iran akudikirira mwachidwi udindo wapamwamba.Kuchuluka kwa mafuta m'maiko awiriwa kutha kuthetseratu kuchepa kwamafuta komwe kumabwera chifukwa cha kuyimitsidwa kwa mafuta aku Russia.Kupereka ndi kufunikira kumakhala koyenera, ndipo mtengo sungathe kukwera.
Chachitatu, kupanga magetsi atsopano monga mphamvu ya mphepo ndi mphamvu ya dzuwa, komanso chitukuko cha bioenergy, chidzalowa m'malo mwa kufunikira kwa mphamvu ya petrochemical, yomwe ndi imodzi mwazinthu zomwe zimalepheretsa kukwera kwa mitengo yamafuta.
Chachinayi, pambuyo pa kukhazikitsidwa kwa denga la mafuta a ku Russia, kutengera mgwirizano wamtengo wapatali, kukwera kwa mafuta osakhala aku Russia kudzalephereka ndi mtengo wotsika wa mafuta aku Russia.Ngati Middle East Petroleum 85 ndi Russian Petroleum 60 ali ndi mgwirizano wokhazikika woyerekeza mtengo, pamene mtengo wa Middle East petroleum ukukwera kwambiri, makasitomala ena adzapita ku Russian Petroleum.Pamene mtengo wa mafuta ku Middle East ukutsika kwambiri pamaziko a 85, Ulaya ndi United States adzatsitsa mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa mafuta a ku Russia, kuti mitengo iwiriyi ifike pamlingo watsopano.
Kumadzulo "kuchepetsa mitengo" kumapangitsa msika wamagetsi
Russia ikufuna kukhazikitsa "mgwirizano wa gasi wachilengedwe"
Akuti akatswiri ena ndi akuluakulu a boma anachenjeza kuti kumadzulo "dongosolo la malire a mtengo" likhoza kukwiyitsa Moscow ndikupangitsa kuti athetse gasi wachilengedwe ku mayiko a ku Ulaya.Kuyambira Januwale mpaka Okutobala chaka chino, mayiko aku Europe adaitanitsa 42% yamafuta achilengedwe ochulukirapo kuchokera ku Russia kuposa nthawi yomweyi mu 2021. Kupereka kwa gasi wachilengedwe ku Russia kumayiko aku Europe kudafikira ma kiyubiki mita 17,8 biliyoni.
Zinanenedwanso kuti dziko la Russia likukambirana za kukhazikitsidwa kwa "mgwirizano wa gasi wachilengedwe" ndi Kazakhstan ndi Uzbekistan.Mneneri wa Purezidenti wa Kazakh Kassym Jomart Tokayev adati izi ndi zomwe Purezidenti wa Russia a Putin adachita.
Peskov adanena kuti lingaliro lokhazikitsa mgwirizanowu lidakhazikitsidwa makamaka poganizira ndondomeko yogwirizanitsa magetsi, koma tsatanetsataneyo anali kukambiranabe.Peskov ananena kuti Kazakhstan ingapulumutse "madola mabiliyoni makumi ambiri ogwiritsidwa ntchito popanga mapaipi" poitanitsa gasi lachilengedwe la Russia.Peskov adanenanso kuti dongosololi likuyembekeza kuti mayiko atatuwa alimbitsa mgwirizano ndikukhazikitsa njira zawo zogwiritsira ntchito gasi wapanyumba komanso zoyendera.
Kodi mwayi wamsika uli kuti?
Kuperewera kwa mphamvu ku Ulaya ndi kukwera kwakukulu kwa mtengo kudzachititsa kuti gasi wachilengedwe ayambe kugwiritsidwa ntchito popanga mafakitale, ndipo mtengo wopangira mankhwala a ku Ulaya udzakwera kwambiri.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, kuchepa kwa mphamvu ndi kukwera mtengo kungayambitse kuchepetsa katundu wa zomera zam'deralo, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kusiyana kwakukulu kwa mankhwala, zomwe zimalimbikitsa kukwera kwakukulu kwa mtengo wa zinthu za ku Ulaya.
Pakadali pano, kusiyana kwamitengo pakati pa China ndi Europe kukukulirakulira, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zinthu zaku China zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja kukuyembekezeka kukwera kwambiri.M'tsogolomu, phindu la China mu mphamvu zamakono ndi mphamvu zatsopano zikuyembekezeka kupitiliza, mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa mankhwala achi China ku Ulaya udzapitirira kukhalapo, ndipo mpikisano wapadziko lonse ndi phindu la makampani opanga mankhwala a China akuyembekezeka kuwonjezereka.
Guohai Securities amakhulupirira kuti gawo lamakono la makampani opanga mankhwala ali ndi mawonekedwe abwino: pakati pawo, pali kuyembekezera kwapang'onopang'ono pamakampani ogulitsa nyumba zoweta, zomwe ndi zabwino kwa polyurethane ndi phulusa la soda;Kuwotchera kwamphamvu kwa ku Europe, kuyang'ana mitundu ya vitamini yokhala ndi mphamvu zambiri zopanga ku Europe;The kunsi mtsinje phosphorous makampani unyolo ali ndi makhalidwe a ulimi mankhwala makampani ndi kukula kwatsopano mphamvu;Gawo la matayala omwe phindu lake limabwezeretsedwa pang'onopang'ono.
Polyurethane: Kumbali imodzi, kukhazikitsidwa kwa Gawo 16 la ndondomeko yothandizira ndalama zogulitsa nyumba kungathandize kukonza malire a msika wapakhomo ndikulimbikitsa kufunikira kwa polyurethane;Kumbali ina, mphamvu zopanga za MDI ndi TDI ku Europe zimawerengera kwambiri.Ngati vuto la mphamvu likapitilira kupesa, zotulutsa za MDI ndi TDI ku Europe zitha kuchepa, zomwe ndi zabwino kugulitsa kunja.
Phulusa la Soda: Ngati msika wanyumba zogulitsa nyumba usinthidwa pang'onopang'ono, zingakhale bwino kuti kufunikira kwa magalasi athyathyathya akonzedwe.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, mphamvu yatsopano ya galasi la photovoltaic idzayendetsanso kufunika kwa phulusa la soda.
Mavitamini: Kuchuluka kwa vitamini A ndi vitamini E ku Ulaya kumapanga gawo lalikulu.Ngati vuto la mphamvu ku Ulaya likupitiriza kufufuma, kutulutsa kwa vitamini A ndi vitamini E kungachepetsenso, kuthandizira mtengo.Kuonjezera apo, phindu la kuŵeta nkhumba zapakhomo lakhala likuyenda bwino posachedwapa, zomwe zikuyembekezeka kuchititsa chidwi cha alimi kuti aziwonjezera, motero zimalimbikitsa kufunikira kwa mavitamini ndi zakudya zina zowonjezera.
Makampani opanga mankhwala a phosphorus: Ndi kutulutsidwa kwa kufunikira kosungirako nyengo yachisanu kwa feteleza, mtengo wa feteleza wa phosphate ukuyembekezeka kukhazikika ndikukwera;Panthawi imodzimodziyo, kufunikira kwa iron phosphate kwa magalimoto atsopano amphamvu ndi kusungirako mphamvu kukupitiriza kukhala kolimba.
Matayala: Kumayambiriro koyambirira, pamene matayala omwe anatsekeredwa m’madoko aku America anasinthidwa kukhala zinthu zamalonda, kuŵerengera kwa mayendedwe aku America kunali kwakukulu, koma
Ndi kukwezedwa kwa kupita kumalo osungiramo katundu, maoda otumiza kunja kwa mabizinesi amatayala akuyembekezeka kuchira pang'onopang'ono.
Malingaliro a kampani JinDun Chemicalali ndi mafakitale opanga OEM ku Jiangsu, Anhui ndi malo ena omwe agwirizana kwazaka zambiri, akupereka chithandizo cholimba cha ntchito zopangira makonda amankhwala apadera.JinDun Chemical amaumirira kuti apange gulu lokhala ndi maloto, kupanga zinthu mwaulemu, mosamala, mosamalitsa, ndikupita kuti mukhale bwenzi lodalirika komanso bwenzi lamakasitomala!Yesani kupangazida zatsopano zamakinabweretsani tsogolo labwino kudziko!
Nthawi yotumiza: Jan-03-2023